Robust retail sales leading into Christmas

More than $35.1 billion was spent in stores and online in September — an increase of 17.9 per cent from a year ago and up 0.6 per cent compared to the previous month, according to figures released today (31 October) by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

by | Oct 31, 2022

State-by-state restrictions overview

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory sales were up 70.4 per cent, while cafés, restaurants and takeaway food increased 52.6 per cent, and department stores were up 53.6 per cent.

Australian Retailers Association (ARA) chief executive Paul Zahra said the result marks the ninth consecutive month-on-month rise in retail sales.

“It’s fantastic to see the momentum maintained as we head into the all-important Christmas trading period — a time when many of our discretionary retailers make up to two-thirds of their profits. Despite the challenging economic times, retail spending remains extremely healthy and that’s great news for retail and a positive sign for our broader economy,” Mr Zahra said.

“Whilst there is a lot to celebrate, we are mindful of the impact that inflation and higher prices have on these sales results — with year-on-year comparisons also strongly influenced by the hangover of the Delta lockdowns last year.

“We are cautiously optimistic about the months ahead, and the ARA forecasts a 3 per cent year-on-year increase in Christmas spending. We also know that for many small businesses, the sales are critical in replenishing cash reserves from the pandemic period, so these results are truly welcome.

Mr Zahra said there could be a softening of sales entering into 2023.

“There is likely to be a lag effect from current inflationary conditions as we see the full impact of interest rate increases flow through the economy, and inflation reaches its forecast peak,” he said.

The September increase was the ninth consecutive rise, following a 0.6 per cent rise in August 2022 and a 1.3 per cent rise in July 2022.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said this month’s rise was again driven by the combined strength in the food industries.

“Many retailers remained open for the National Day of Mourning, an additional one-off public holiday in September, and this boosted spending on food, alcohol and dining out,” he said.

Household goods retailing fell 0.8 per cent, a slight decrease after last month’s large rise of 2.6 per cent. The fall in September was softened by the release of new mobile phone models and is the fourth monthly fall in household goods retailing in the last six months.

Turnover is at record levels in most states and territories. The ACT had the largest rise in September 2022, up 1.6 per cent, followed by Western Australia (1.4 per cent), Queensland (1.1 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.1 per cent), Tasmania (0.9 per cent), Victoria (0.4 per cent), and NSW (0.3 per cent).

South Australia, down 0.2 per cent, was the only state or territory to record a fall, the first in six months after five consecutive rises.

Mr Dorber said the latest consumer price index showed that prices continued to rise strongly in the September quarter. To see the effect of consumer prices on recent turnover growth, it will be important to look at quarterly retail sales volumes, which will be released later in the week.

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