In August, the index contracted by -3.5 per cent, compared to a -1.6 per cent contraction in July.
On a year-on-year basis, the contraction was even higher, a massive -18.9 per cent, which followed an exceptionally strong growth in August 2021.
Homewares and appliances experienced the largest contraction last month, followed by department stores.
There were some exceptions with year-on-year data showing that takeaway food and media, continue to grow.
The state result was again mixed in the month, with Tasmania rebounding after last month’s drop, along with more moderate growth for the Northern Territory, Western Australia, and South Australia.
But these were outweighed by the contractions in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.
After recording growth in July, regional areas caught up with their metro peers in August, with rates of contraction now similar. Victorian metro and NSW regional areas played a significant part in the monthly result. In year-on-year terms, overall growth in both metro and regional areas contracted — for regional, at about half the rate of metro areas.
The contraction in monthly growth was attributed to both domestic and international retailers, with the former faring far worse. This was particularly the case for homewares and appliances, department stores, and games and toys. Fashion, and media however, did fare better for domestic retailers in the month. Over the year, domestic retailers recorded a contraction more than double the rate of international, but again, this is partly reflecting the considerable base growth a year prior for domestic retailers.
NAB estimated that in the 12 months to August, Australians spent $54.9 billion on online retail, about 14 per cent of the total retail trade estimate and about 9.4 per cent higher than the 12 months to August 2021.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the rolling monthly contractions have caught up with the year-on-year metric.
“But, as mentioned in July, it is worth keeping this in context. Most states during the September quarter 2021 experienced some form of lockdown,” he said.
“In 12-months-to terms, growth remains positive (9.4 per cent). However, as much of this came from growth during the lockdown period in the third, and early fourth, quarters of 2021, we see a continuation of this moderation if the current monthly results continue.
“Three clear standout categories over the past year, in terms of contribution to growth (through the year terms), have been department stores, grocery and liquor, and takeaway food. With average higher growth over the period, each of these has gained share in the index. That is, these three, that now make up about 40 per cent share of the index, contributed just over 70 per cent to growth over the past 12 months. In contrast, homewares and appliances, which is still the largest in share, and personal and recreational goods, contributed far less to growth than their share in the index.”
