However, in year-on-year terms, the NAB Online Retail Sales Index recorded another large contraction in September (-20.6 per cent y/y), but it should be noted that this is compared to a period of exceptionally strong growth in September 2021 (+29.5 per cent).
There were mixed results in sales categories with the large sales category, homewares and appliances, along with fashion, personal and recreation, and games and toys contracting. Surprisingly, department stores, grocery and liquor, takeaway food, and media, all recorded growth. In year-on-year terms, takeaway food, and media, continue to grow, defying the overall trend.
A contraction in the two largest sales states, NSW and Victoria, was outweighed, albeit slightly, by growth in all other states in the month. In year-on-year terms, however, the much larger contraction in NSW, Victoria, and ACT outweighed growth in Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and Northern Territory.
Regional areas in all states, except Western Australia and Tasmania, recorded growth in September. In contrast, metro areas recorded another contraction, with the result strongly influenced again by metro Victoria, and to a lesser extent, NSW. In year-on-year terms, overall growth in both metro and regional areas continued to contract, albeit, for regional, at about half the rate of metro areas. This was again mostly due to Victoria and NSW.
NAB estimated that in the 12 months to September, Australians spent $53.82 billion on online retail, a level that is around 13.5 per cent of the total retail trade estimate (August 2022, Series 8501, Australian Bureau of Statistics), and about 4.7 per cent higher than the 12 months to September 2021.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said in month-on-month terms, the NAB Online Retail Sales Index ended seven months of contraction, with slight growth in September.
“However, these rolling monthly contractions have well and truly caught up with the year-on-year metric,” he said.
“As mentioned previously, it is worth keeping this in context, with most states during the September quarter 2021 experiencing some form of lockdown, which boosted online sales.
“The three clear standout categories over the past year, in terms of contribution to growth (through the year terms) are department stores, grocery and liquor, and takeaway food. Another category with strong contribution to index growth has been media.
“It has recorded growth in nine of the past 12 months, and while representing about 7 per cent of the index, has contributed over double that to index growth. Part of this might be due to inflationary pressures, as the average spend per transaction has increased.”
